Economic growth for the emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) of the Europe and Central Asia region is expected to drop to 2.8% in 2024, following a substantial strengthening to 3.3% in 2023. This is due to a shift from contraction to expansion in the Russian Federation and war-hit Ukraine, and a more robust recovery in Central Asia. Regional output growth is likely to remain broadly unchanged in 2025.
Such sluggish growth will further delay the region¡¯s recovery from recent shocks, including Russia¡¯s invasion of Ukraine, which remains ongoing, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 cost-of-living crisis.
In Ukraine, the pace of recovery is projected to slow to 3.2% this year from 4.8% in 2023, reflecting a smaller harvest and persistent labor shortage. The country¡¯s economic outlook remains conditional on donor support and the duration of Russia¡¯s invasion. According to recent estimates by the аIJʿª½± and partner institutions, the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine has grown to $486 billion, which is more than two times the size of Ukraine¡¯s pre-war economy in 2021.
Learn More: Regional Economic Update Spring 2024
Last Updated: Apr 16, 2024