ࡱ> vxu{ Lbjbjzz .TJ X b nnn8,xmtlllllll$nqm!nmnn2mbbb2JnnlblbbVk@[lmm@`k lHm0xmkxXr`Xr[lXrn[l|>,b?$cmmaxmXr : ng Nam : Vng duyn hi v sn lng b e da Khu vc ng Nam  chng kin tc  tng trng kinh t v xu hng  th ha mnh m, nhng i ngho v bt bnh ng vn l nhng thch thc ln ti khu vc. Dn s khu vc n nm 2050 c d on s tng ln 759 triu vi 65% dn s sng   th. Nm 2010, dn s  l 593 triu ngi vi 44% sng  khu vc  th. ng Nam ang i mt vi nhng nh hng ngy cng ln lin quan n hin tng nc bin dng, i dng m ln, v acid ha ngy cng mnh kt hp vi nhng nh hng ca bo nhit i v nhng t nng cc im ang ngy cng gia tng. Khi nhng nh hng ny kt hp vi nhau, chng c th to ra nhng tc ng bt li ng thi n hng hot cc ngnh ngh, c bit lm gim cng n vic lm ti khu vc duyn hi. Cc vng lu vc sng  ng Nam vi mt  dn s tng i cao c bit d b tn thng trc cc hin tng nc bin dng v s gia tng cng  ca bo nhit i. Kh nng nh hng vt l v l sinh nh mt phn ca d on bin i kh hu Nng cc im: Khu vc ng Nam c d on s i mt vi nhit  tng mnh trong tng lai gn vi nhng t nng cc im xy ra hng thng. Nhit  tri t m ln di 2oC, nhng t nng cc im m hin nay hu nh cha xy ra s bao trm khong 60-70% tng din tch t ai vo ma h, v nhng t nng cha tng c vi nhit  t 30-40oC s bao trm nhng vng t  cc bc tri t vo ma h. Khi nhit  tng thm 4oC, nhng thng h, m nh hin nay th  c gi l cha tng c, s xut hin ph bin, nh hng n 90% din tch t ai trong thi gian nhng thng ma h ti khu vc bc bn cu. Nc bin dng: i vi cc vng duyn hi  ng Nam , d on nc bin dng vo cui th k 21, so snh vi giai on 1986-2005, s cao hn 10-15% so vi mc trung bnh ca th gii. Nhng phn tch v Ma-ni-la, Gia-cc-ta, thnh ph H Ch Minh, v Bng Cc cho thy nc bin dng ti cc khu vc ny s vt qu 50cm so vi mc hin nay vo nm 2060, v 100cm vo nm 2090. Bo nhit i: Tc  v cng  gi ti a ca cc cn bo nhit i khi qut qua t lin c d on s tng ln mnh ti ng Nam ; tuy nhin, tng s cn bo  b vo t lin c th s gim mnh. Tn tht c th s vn tng ln v nhng nh hng ln nht gy ra bi nhng cn bo c cng  mnh. Ma nhiu cc oan lin quan n bo nhit i c d on s tng ln khong 30% t mc 50-80mm/h. iu ny cho thy mc  ri ro li lt cao hn ti nhng khu vc d b tn thng. Xm mn: Tnh trng xm mn nghim trng c d on ti cc vng duyn hi. V d, trng hp khu vc sng Mahaka, In--n-xia khi nc bin dng thm 100cm vo nm 2100, din tch t b xm mn c th s tng 7-12% khi nhit  tng thm 4oC. Tc ng n cc ngnh ngh v l)nh vc Cc lu vc sng c d on s b nh hng do nc bin dng v cng  bo nhit i tng ln, cng vi  l din tch t st gim do hot ng ca con ngi. Nhng yu t ny s lm tng tnh trng d b tn thng ca ngi dn sng  c nng thn v thnh th phi i mt vi ri ro t li lt, xm mn, v xi mn ven bin. Vng ng bng ca 3 con sng M-kng, Irrawaddy v Chao Phraya, tt c u c nhng khu vc quan trng nm thp hn mc nc bin 2m, c bit b e da. Nui trng thy hi sn, sn xut nng nghip, nh bt thy hi sn v du lch l nhng ngnh b t e da bi cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu  nhng vng ng bng ny. Ngnh thy sn c th b nh hng khi sn lng quan trng nht ca cc i dng trn ton th gii c d on s st gim n trn 20% vo nm 2100, so vi iu kin ca thi tin cng nghip. Cc loi c  bin Java v Vnh Thi Lan c d on s b nh hng nghim trng do nhit  nc bin tng ln v mc xy gim, vi khi lng c th trung bnh nh i rt nhiu vo nm 2050. D bo kh nng nh bt ti a ti khu vc min nam Phi-lp-pin cing gim khong 50%. Cc trang tri nui trng thy sn c th s b nh hng nng n do nhng cng thng ca df$ d j P X BD`br >R$&D,.&6H»Ӵ´ hP<CJ hCJ h[CJH*h[h[CJ h[5CJ hQ5CJh[h9 5CJ hv5CJh[h[5CJ hQCJ hvCJ h9 CJ h[CJh[h9 5CJ <df D&"@r#2'Z3H8J8999$hdh^ha$gdl$ & Fdha$gdP< $dha$gdP<$ & Fdha$gd[ $dha$gd9 dhgd9  ">2>bV   \ !(!"#8#n#p#r#######$$%,%B%F%%%&'2''㿶װװװװװ hQCJ h]CJhC(hP<5CJ hC(CJhC(hC(CJ hC(5CJ hP<CJH*hP<hP<5CJ h->CJ hvCJ hP<5CJhP<h[5CJ hP<CJ hCJ<'''0 0$01&1182z22X3Z33@4445"5V5X5t55555586D6\6~6666677778F8H8999"9&9999::F:H:|:֪❔ hlCJH*hl5>*CJ hl5CJ hlCJ hCJ hz$CJH* hX CJjh{0JCJU h->5CJ hC(CJ h]CJ h->CJ hz$CJ hz$5CJU h]5CJ h!5CJ7bin i kh hu. Cng  bo nhit i tng ln, xm mn, v nhit  tng c th s vt qu ngng chu ng ca mt s ging nng nghip quan trng ca a phng. Nui trng thy sn l mt ngnh ngh ang c tc  tng trng mnh  ng Nam , chim khong 5%GDP ca Vit Nam. C khong 40% protein ng vt trong ch  n  ng Nam l t c, ngnh ny cing ng gp quan trng vo an ninh lng thc trong khu vc. S bin mt v suy thoi cc rng san h c th gy nh hng nghim trng n ngh nh bt trn bin v du lch. Nhit  b mt nc bin tng ln cing  dn n nhng tn tht to ln nh vn  rng san h mt mu t nhin trong mt vi thp k qua. Khi nhit  tng thm di 1,5oC v tnh trng acid ha i dng tng ln, dn n nguy c cao (50% kh nng) vic rng san h mt mu t nhin s xy ra hng nm ngay t nm 2030. (Hnh 3). Cc d bo ch ra rng tt c cc rng san h  khu vc ng Nam chc chn s tri qua cng thng do nng gay gt vo nm 2050, cing nh cng thng ha cht do acid ha i dng. S liu 3: Nhng nh hng c d bo do bin i kh hu ln cc rng san h  ng Nam Kh nng din ra mt mu t nhin nghim trng ca rng san h (DHW>8) xy n hng nm c  cp trong kch bn RCP 2.6 (khong 2oC, tri) v RCP8.5 khong 4oC, phi). Ngun: Meissner v cc tc gi khc (2012). Sn xut nng nghip, c bit l sn xut la go  ng bng sng M-kng, i mt vi ri ro do nc bin dng. ng bng sng M-kng sn xut khong 50% tng sn lng nng nghip ca Vit Nam v ng gp quan trng vo xut khu go ca quc gia. D on khi nc bin dng thm 30cm, c th xy n sm vo nm 2040, c th gy tn tht khong 12% sn lng ma v do ngp ng v xm mn so vi mc hin ti. Cc thnh ph ven bin tp trung dn s v ti sn ngy cng gia tng b t trc ri ro bin i kh hu bao gm cng  bo nhit i tng ln, nc bin dng trong thi gian di, v li lt ven bin xut hin. Nu khng c bin php thch ng, khu vc thnh ph Bng-cc c d on s b ngp ng khong 40% do li lt kt hp vi lng ma cc oan v nc bin dng khi nc bin dng 15cm trn mc hin ti (c th xy n vo nhng nm 2030), v 70% vi kch bn nc bin dng 88cm (c th xy n vo nhng nm 2080 khi nhit  tng thm 4oC). Hn th na, tc ng ca hin tng nng cng cc c bit c ni n  khu vc  th, nguyn nhn l do hiu ng o nhit  th, v c th dn n t l t vong cao v bnh tt honh hnh ti cc thnh ph. Tc  tng trng cao ca dn c  th v GDP lm gia tng nhng ri ro ti chnh trc cc nh hng bin i kh hu ti nhng khu vc ny. Nhng ngi ngho   th c bit d b tn thng khi nhit  v  m tng qu cao. Nm 2005, 41% ngi dn thnh th Vit Nam v 44% ca Phi-lp-pin sng  nhng vng nh c khng chnh thc. Li lt kt hp vi nc bin dng v cc cn bo ngy cng nhiu mang theo nhiu ri ro to ln cho cc khu vc nh c khng chnh thc, ni thiu cc h thng thot nc, v ph hy cc iu kin nc sch v v sinh, km vi nhng mi e da v sc khe.  Hin tng mt mu t nhin ca rng san h c th xy ra khi nhit  ti a ca khu vc vo ma nng tng thm 1oC trong vng 4 tun v hin tng mt mu din bin ti t hn khi nhit  tng cao hn v/hoc trong thi gian di hn khi nhit  vt qu ngng nhit khu vc. Khi cc rng san h c th sng st sau s kin mt mu th kh nng cht cing s cao v phi mt nhiu nm mi phc hi c. 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